Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 478
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
B6 478 · JAX → JFK
departs 3:07 PM ET · arrives 5:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 10/13 19%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 44%
Sat 10/17 40%
Sun 10/18 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.