Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 819
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
B6 819 · DTW → JFK
departs 5:24 PM ET · arrives 7:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Tue 10/13 36%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 42%
Fri 10/16 49%
Sat 10/17 43%
Sun 10/18 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.