Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4224
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
C5 4224 · AMA → IAH
departs 9:08 AM CT · arrives 11:02 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 23%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at AMA that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↓
9am departures from AMA are usually not late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AMA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.70 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 9,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.