Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4239
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
C5 4239 · IAD → AVP
departs 8:27 AM ET · arrives 9:37 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Mon 10/12 16%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 11%
Fri 10/16 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at AVP more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AVP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at AVP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AVP?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AVP (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.