Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4267
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
C5 4267 · DAY → IAD
departs 7:46 PM ET · arrives 9:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave DAY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DAY that day
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
DAY (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.56 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.