Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4302
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
C5 4302 · OKC → IAH
departs 9:41 AM CT · arrives 11:29 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/14
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at OKC that day
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
OKC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
OKC (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.02 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.