Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4314
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
C5 4314 · MOB → IAD
departs 12:53 PM CT · arrives 4:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Mon 10/12 18%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 18%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MOB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
C5's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
MOB (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.