Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4343
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
C5 4343 · IAH → SGF
departs 12:35 PM CT · arrives 2:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 22%
Wed 10/14
Sat 10/17 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SGF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SGF?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SGF that day
↑
12pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SGF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SGF (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.94 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.