Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4357
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
C5 4357 · LRD → IAH
departs 9:18 AM CT · arrives 10:56 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave LRD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at LRD that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
Weather at each end
LRD (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.