Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4818
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
C5 4818 · IAD → CAE
departs 8:24 AM ET · arrives 10:04 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 10%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at CAE more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at CAE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CAE?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
C5's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CAE (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.