Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4821
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
C5 4821 · IAH → AMA
departs 9:28 AM CT · arrives 11:17 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Tue 10/13 19%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 17%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at AMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AMA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at AMA that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into AMA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AMA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.50 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.