Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4844
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
C5 4844 · MOB → IAH
departs 7:03 AM CT · arrives 9:02 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Mon 10/12 9%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 10%
Fri 10/16 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave MOB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MOB
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MOB (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.