Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4889
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
C5 4889 · ALB → IAD
departs 10:04 AM ET · arrives 11:52 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ALB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ALB (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.