Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

COPA · FLIGHT CM 868 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

CM 868 · MCO → PTY

departs 3:29 PM ET · arrives 5:53 PM EST

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PTY?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ 3pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PTY (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 868 · MCO → PTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to PTY?