Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
CATHAY PACIFIC · FLIGHT CX 879
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
CX 879 · SFO → HKG
departs 1:17 PM PT · arrives 6:26 PM HKT
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 16%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at HKG more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HKG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at HKG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to HKG?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HKG (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.