Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1018
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 1018 · FLL → RDU
departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 5:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from FLL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.