Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1038
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 1038 · RDU → FLL
departs 11:59 AM ET · arrives 2:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 21%
Sat 10/17 14%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late
↑
RDU is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 9 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
FLL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt
Ceiling 4,700 ft
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.