Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1166 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

DL 1166 · JFK → SAT

departs 8:59 AM ET · arrives 12:08 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAT is prone to delays

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ 8am departures from JFK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1166 · JFK → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?