Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1198
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 1198 · SLC → SNA
departs 8:00 AM MT · arrives 8:54 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Mon 10/12 20%
Tue 10/13 18%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Arrivals into SNA at that hour are usually not late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
SNA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.