Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1412
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 1412 · SEA → SFO
departs 10:49 AM PT · arrives 12:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13 23%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 39%
Fri 10/16 39%
Sat 10/17 35%
Sun 10/18 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
10am departures from SEA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.