Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1421
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 1421 · LAX → SFO
departs 7:28 AM PT · arrives 8:51 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 25%
Fri 10/16 29%
Sat 10/17 22%
Sun 10/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 8% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.