Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1441
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 1441 · DTW → DFW
departs 3:51 PM ET · arrives 5:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13 20%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 36%
Fri 10/16 28%
Sun 10/18 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
3pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at DFW that day
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.06 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.