Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 1511 · LGA → MCO
departs 8:15 AM ET · arrives 10:56 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Mon 10/12 19%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±1 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.