Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1782
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 1782 · ATL → SAP
departs 10:17 AM ET · arrives 11:45 AM CST
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 11%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAP more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at SAP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAP?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↑
10am departures from ATL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SAP (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.