Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1857
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 1857 · SNA → DTW
departs 12:23 PM PT · arrives 7:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Tue 10/13 20%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 35%
Fri 10/16 34%
Sun 10/18 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.