Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2341
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 2341 · BWI → DTW
departs 9:39 AM ET · arrives 11:07 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at DTW that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.