Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2405
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 2405 · MSY → LGA
departs 6:31 PM CT · arrives 10:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 10/13 23%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 41%
Fri 10/16 41%
Sat 10/17 24%
Sun 10/18 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.