Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 2431 · DTW → DEN
departs 4:21 PM ET · arrives 5:27 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Tue 10/13 19%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 28%
Fri 10/16 26%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.06 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.