Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2458
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 2458 · DTW → SAT
departs 1:41 PM ET · arrives 3:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 29%
Fri 10/16 23%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAT is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at SAT that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.06 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.