Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 2515 · SLC → MEM
departs 1:40 PM MT · arrives 5:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Mon 10/12 25%
Tue 10/13 22%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SLC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.33 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.