Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2633
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 2633 · ORD → LGA
departs 7:00 AM CT · arrives 10:14 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Mon 10/12 22%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
7am departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.