Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2824
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 2824 · CVG → MCO
departs 3:58 PM ET · arrives 6:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 18%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at CVG that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.23 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.