Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2868
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 2868 · STL → DTW
departs 10:19 AM CT · arrives 12:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Mon 10/12 8%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 9%
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at DTW that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.56 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.