Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2886
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 2886 · ATL → AUS
departs 9:43 AM ET · arrives 11:03 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 6 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt
Ceiling 1,000 ft
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.