Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2985
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 2985 · ORD → LGA
departs 11:30 AM CT · arrives 3:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 66%
Mon 10/12 25%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 32%
Fri 10/16 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from ORD are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.