Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 469 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

DL 469 · DTW → SFO

departs 12:15 PM ET · arrives 2:17 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from DTW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.06 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 469 · DTW → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?