Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 491 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

DL 491 · BZN → SLC

departs 5:15 AM MT · arrives 6:34 AM MT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SLC?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at SLC that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from BZN are usually not late

Weather at each end

BZN (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SLC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 491 · BZN → SLC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SLC?