Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 509 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

DL 509 · JAC → SLC

departs 5:33 PM MT · arrives 6:35 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SLC?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into SLC at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 5pm departures from JAC are usually not late

Weather at each end

JAC (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

SLC (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 509 · JAC → SLC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SLC?