Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 831 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

DL 831 · SEA → AUS

departs 11:00 AM PT · arrives 5:16 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 831 · SEA → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?