Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 9964
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 9964 · JFK → BOS
departs 9:31 PM ET · arrives 10:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Sun 10/18 62%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.