Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AER LINGUS · FLIGHT EI 111 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

EI 111 · SNN → JFK

departs 2:10 PM IST · arrives 4:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNN

Weather at each end

SNN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

EI 111 · SNN → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?