Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AER LINGUS · FLIGHT EI 115 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

EI 115 · DUB → PHL

departs 4:08 PM IST · arrives 7:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DUB

Weather at each end

DUB (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

EI 115 · DUB → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?