Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2046
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
F9 2046 · OAK → LAS
departs 12:39 PM PT · arrives 2:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Tue 10/13 22%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 21%
Sun 10/18 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.