Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2269
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
F9 2269 · PHL → TPA
departs 8:05 PM ET · arrives 11:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 44%
Fri 10/16 46%
Sat 10/17 40%
Sun 10/18 35%
Mon 10/19 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.