Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2505
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
F9 2505 · PHL → MCO
departs 5:51 PM ET · arrives 8:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 37%
Fri 10/16 43%
Sat 10/17 35%
Sun 10/18 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.