Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2818
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
F9 2818 · SAN → DEN
departs 6:25 AM PT · arrives 10:03 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13 21%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 17%
Sun 10/18 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.733333 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.733333 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.