Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3419
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
F9 3419 · SAT → LAS
departs 3:09 PM CT · arrives 4:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Tue 10/13 20%
Wed 10/14
Fri 10/16 27%
Sat 10/17 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.