Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3861
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
F9 3861 · DEN → SLC
departs 1:38 PM MT · arrives 3:17 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Tue 10/13 17%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.733333 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SLC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.733333 mi Precip 0.19 in
SLC (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.