Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4280
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
F9 4280 · DFW → CVG
departs 6:29 AM CT · arrives 9:55 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Wed 10/14
Fri 10/16 36%
Sat 10/17 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at CVG that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.