Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4392
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
F9 4392 · PHX → DTW
departs 7:30 AM MT · arrives 2:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Tue 10/13 17%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 25%
Fri 10/16 26%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.